Kelly's method is a strategy by which it is
possible to calculate the optimal bet based on the odds of the bet, as well as
its prediction. It is a widely used tool for **extracting the ideal return **on
a bet, since betting more is taking unnecessary risks, and betting less would
be wasting the return on the play.

Kelly's method is a mathematically based **strategy**
for calculating the ideal return on a bet. Also known as the "Kelly
Criterion", it is an approach based on formulas that have only been used
for betting and investing over time.

For each bet that is made, we allocate a
certain amount of funds from our portfolio. That amount is a small percentage
of our total funds. What this method does is use mathematics to **establish a
relationship between the forecast and the odds to determine what percentage of
our funds we should bet** to achieve the perfect balance between risk and
return.

Originally, the Kelly method was created in
1956 by **John Kelly** to analyze noise in long-distance telephone signals.
Although successful in this sector, over time the same formula has been used
successfully in the gambling industry, making it an established tool in the
betting world.

To calculate the value of a bet using Kelly's
method we only need to know two pieces of information: the bookmaker's odds
(which we represent with a C) and the probability of the prediction being
fulfilled, which is assigned to the P. It is important that the probability is **accurate**
in order to obtain a precise result.

Thus, the **formula** used to apply Kelly's
method is as follows:

__% = (P x C - 1) / (C - 1)__

In other words: multiplying the value of the
odds by the probability that the forecast will be fulfilled and subtracting 1 from
that value, and taking that total value and dividing it by the result of
subtracting the odds of the bet minus one, we obtain what percentage of our
funds is ideal to bet so as **not to assume more risk than necessary**,
without compromising the profitability and potential of the bet.

But **Kelly's method**, while accurate,
should not be followed blindly. There are a series of guidelines that it is
advisable to follow so that our bets are in a perfect balance between potential
and risk.

For example, limiting the maximum amount of
each bet will allow us to avoid losing large amounts of money. Therefore, **reducing
the maximum bets** is almost mandatory.

It should also be noted that one of the
strengths of Kelly's method is that it is a **valid long-term strategy**. In
other words, even if you think (with some reason) that you can bet more on a
bet than Kelly's method, you really shouldn't do it. Therefore, discipline is
important and it is not advisable to bet a higher percentage than that obtained
after using the formula.

But keep in mind that this method only makes
sense if you can predict the outcome of an event with even greater accuracy
than bookmakers. The exact percentage of success probability must be known, as
this system does not provide valuable results when trying to determine results
in matches or good odds.

It is not reliable to use it for betting on
several matches at the same time. The method can cause users to incur high
losses if they do not use a conservative approach when using it, so to take
full advantage of it, **you have to be a very experienced bettor**, but for
someone with little experience is something out of reach and even reckless.

In summary: Kelly's method is a** much more
useful tool for experienced bettors**. The inexperienced can use the trick of
trying to control the method with not very high or limited stakes and see if
their calculations are adequate, before scaling up the use of the method.

In essence, Kelly's method is a way to help you
manage your money. It's a tool to avoid going over the top and overbetting on a
short-odds bet and to help you make accurate plays. But, at the same time, it
is a tool designed to take advantage of the full potential of the bets, **avoiding
losing** that accumulation of small percentages that translates into a
significant amount of money and that, in the long run, can be missed.

Considering that Kelly's method is a tool used
mostly by **experienced bettors**, it is used more to try to achieve 100%
economic return on the bet than as a wild card for beginners so that they do
not overbet on a cheating bet.

Although extremely effective, there are two
handicaps associated with the use of Kelly's method that you should be aware
of. The first is the one discussed above: **experience is required** to
accurately calculate the true odds of a bet. If accurate data is not used, the
result will have too high a margin of error to be taken seriously.

On the other hand, **Kelly's method can be too
aggressive**, which can cause any bettor to bet too high a percentage of
their bankroll on a single bet. Therefore, it is highly recommended to reduce
the maximum bets when using this method, a tip that we gave at the beginning
and that is the best lifesaver. Although it is very effective, if the result of
using Kelly's method is too high, we should "cap" the result and only
apply between 50% and 60% of the total percentage obtained.

William Hill already belongs to 888 HoldingsThe acquisition of William Hill by 888 Holdings, who had been negotiating for months between their shareholders with 99.73% support for the operation, ha...

In sports betting the concepts of "back" and "lay" usually go together and are associated with bets placed in one direction or the other. They are very common in matches where two teams compete, al...

There are a lot of strategies that you can use in your sports betting. One of the most popular is the martingale strategy, which is widely used by professionals due to its high profitability when i...